Unprecedented times

With the November election fast approaching we wanted to share where things stand, consistent with the potential change of government briefings we have been providing our clients and what it means for business.

Why this election is different

As incoming Premier, Ben Carroll is trying to achieve what no Labor government has before: a fourth consecutive term. Voter dissatisfaction is high and, consistent with the historical decline in the two-party share of the vote, loyalty to either major party has considerably weakened. The Coalition carries its own scar tissue from years of internal instability, and One Nation has emerged as a genuine third force in state politics.

That combination means the 2022 result is a weaker guide than it would normally be. Credible outcomes now span a Coalition majority, Labor majority, and minority government under either side, which, in totality, represents a truly volatile election landscape.

Two very different governing propositions

Premier Carroll’s pitch, consistent with his political mentor Steve Bracks, is essentially a reset, with little incentive to defend every Andrews or Allan-era decision. The tension is that he was an integral part of the government he’s now trying to reset.

Jess Wilson is smart, pragmatic and decisive and would run a centralised government, reinforced by her intention (so far) to hold both the Premiership and Treasury. She has never served as a Minister. The real question for the Coalition isn’t Wilson’s own capability; it’s whether the Ministerial team around her has the depth to deliver. This extends to replacement picks in the public service as well.

The issue on 28 November isn’t only who wins. It’s what kind of government each leader could actually run. Attempts to paint a Wilson administration as a return to Kennett austerity are as predictable as they are incorrect. Jess will govern from the middle, amplifying Labor’s record on budget management for as long as politically possible. To help keep a lid on conservative attempts to push the government further to the right, Wilson will give them free rein to draft and implement updated, anti-union terms of reference for the Royal Commission into the construction sector.

Whoever forms government, the formal ministry list will only tell part of the story. In a Coalition government, and as former university buddies of Wilson, figures like Evan Mulholland and Brad Rowswell are likely to carry influence well beyond their formal seniority, alongside experienced hands (and the only remaining former Coalition Ministers) like David Davis and Matthew Guy.

Under a re-elected Labor government following Ben Carroll’s reshuffle, a similar pattern holds: Deputy Premier Gabrielle Williams and new Treasurer Colin Brooks are likely to matter as much as the Premier himself in shaping decisions. Watch for One Nation and the Greens to negotiate their pound of flesh in the event of a hung parliament on either side.

A more complicated map, in both houses

The days of a simple electoral pendulum are behind us. Despite its current momentum, One Nation is unlikely to sweep the state, but yet-to-be-confirmed preference deals put three-way contests into play in a way Victoria hasn’t seen before.

The more consequential result may sit in the Legislative Council. With group voting tickets gone, genuine primary support now matters far more than preference harvesting and, on current numbers, One Nation is on track for a significant Council presence of around eight seats.

Whichever party governs the Assembly, it may still need to negotiate with One Nation to pass contested legislation. Having the balance of power and knowing how to use it are two different things, and that’s as true for One Nation as it is for anyone else.

What this means for businesses and organisations

A change of government changes the operating environment for anyone doing business with the state, not just political players. Some policy commitments will be abandoned, while others will survive despite the rhetoric used to win office. Council numbers may end up mattering as much as the relevant Minister. Procurement priorities and enforcement philosophy can shift. And contested issues, Treaty chief among them, may create pressure on organisations to publicly take a side whether they want to or not.

Regardless of the result, strong bipartisan government relations remain critical as you progress strategic and commercial objectives over election cycles. Having said that, don’t wait until election day to build relationships. Develop and execute a strategic engagement plan now so you can hit the ground running.

What we’re watching from here

• Does One Nation’s support hold above 20%, or does it soften as the campaign proceeds?
• Can Carroll separate himself from the Andrews and Allan years without looking like he’s evading responsibility for them?
• Can Wilson make the Coalition look like a government-in-waiting, not just an opposition?
• Where are strong local candidates outperforming the statewide swing?
• Where is the One Nation vote actually concentrating geographically?
• Does growth in inner Melbourne point to a genuine Labor–Greens governing arrangement?

The organisations best placed after November won’t be the ones that called the result correctly. They’ll be the ones that prepared for the range of credible outcomes. If you would like assistance navigating the changing political landscape and engaging with all sides of Victorian politics, contact the Banksia team today.

This update reflects current data, parliamentary experience and considered judgement, not an election prediction or an endorsement of any side.