No seat is safe

No seat is safe. No one is safe.

An article I read recently put it better than I could: One Nation is not the message. It’s the vessel.

That distinction matters, and I don’t think either major party has fully absorbed it.

When I talk to my non-political friends – and they’re the ones who actually matter, because they’re the overwhelming majority of the voter base – I hear the same line about the Crisafulli Government:

“They’re doing okay. Better than the alternative.”

That is the danger.

“Better than the alternative” only works while there are two options. The moment a third option looks credible, that logic collapses and both majors start bleeding at once. Secret Harbour is what that looks like in a seat nobody thought was in play.

The State Government should feel the pinch. Genuinely, it should. Queensland is about to be challenged, and the question is whether the Government treats that as a threat to manage or a standard to meet.

Because if Queenslanders don’t feel their quality of life improving – and, as humans, we do measure our conditions against a reference point we once had – they will pick up the nearest vessel and send the message with it. Right now, that vessel is One Nation.

There’s a second layer to this in Queensland, and it’s the one the Premier should think hard about.

Crisafulli has confirmed he’ll bring in optional preferential voting before 2028. Compulsory preferencing is what props up the majors. It forces minor-party votes to keep travelling until they land with Labor or the LNP.

Optional preferential removes that. The One Nation voter writes “1”, stops, and their vote exits the flow-down count. The pool shrinks, the winning line drops, and whoever leads on primaries gets there first.

In Queensland’s regions, that’s increasingly One Nation.

Kos Samaras says the change costs the LNP seats. Other commentators put the number considerably higher.

So my message is simple. Learn from what happened in the West. Deliver for Queensland. And be precise about changing the playing field.

I said earlier that One Nation is the vessel. It’s more than that. Queenslanders hold the gun. One Nation is just the bullet.