Federal politics update: January 2025

It’s clear 2025 is a federal election year. National political debate usually kicks off after Australia Day, but this year the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader were active for most of January.

While both major parties will reserve big announcements for the campaign, January’s targeted announcements were important. Labor announced revised funding of the Bruce Highway as a major plank of its Queensland campaign, and the Coalition announced its frontbench shakeup with David Coleman taking the Shadow Foreign Affairs portfolio and Melissa McIntosh taking Shadow Communications. Both parties are close to finalising candidates and attention now turns to securing the fundraising and volunteers needed for the ground game.

I’m often asked: ‘When will the election be called?’ It’s a simple question that warrants a detailed response. Our sense at The SAS Group is that the election is close, but not too close! The two sitting weeks in early February are likely to go ahead. However, the sitting week of 24 February is set for Senate Estimates, and there’s limited upside for the government to see it go ahead. I think the Prime Minister will visit the Governor-General on Sunday, 23 February. The means the earliest date for a pre-Easter election is 29 March, followed by 5 April and 12 April. A quick look at school holiday calendars indicates 29 March or 5 April would be less disruptive to travelling families than 12 April.

Two-or-so month out, who’s ahead? Recent polling has been favourable for the Opposition, and it deserves credit for its discipline and messaging. However, some pundits are over-egging the prospects of a Dutton Government, attributable to their late realisation that a Dutton Government is a very real possibility. 

The SAS Group constantly analyses political trends and we’ve been preparing clients for a range of potential election outcomes. While the Opposition’s lead and the continued downward trend of the Albanese Government are causing anxiety within Labor ranks, the two-party preferred support is very close to 50:50. This gives enough room for the Albanese Government to make its case and rely on its campaign machinery to convert messaging to votes.

With January behind us, what will February reveal? Expect next week’s return of Parliament to be fiery and to see election messages being road tested, without giving away all the secrets. The Albanese Government will want to keep a firm hand on parliamentary proceedings and secure its remaining legislative wins to gain momentum before the campaign. The Opposition will be emboldened to use the Senate to delay and disrupt the passage of contentious legislation and use Question Time to hone voter anger against the government. Whoever ends up on top at the end of those two weeks will likely be the frontrunner going into a highly volatile and contested election campaign.

Buckle up.