Is the duopoly no longer too big to fail?

Ben Carroll inherited a government built on megaprojects. Eight weeks out, voters are asking if Victoria’s two big parties are still too big to fail.

Four months out, with its vote sliding, Labor swapped Jacinta Allan for Ben Carroll. On day one he called a Royal Commission into construction corruption linked to the CFMEU and the Big Build.

He then cut $2 billion from the Suburban Rail Loop, insisting “I respect your money”. With more than $33 billion already in SRL East, it’s too far gone to stop. Even Jess Wilson now promises only a “pause and review”.

Airport rail is moving again too, though the final leg still has no date.

The new Footscray Hospital shows the hard part starts after the ribbon is cut. Promised in 2018 and opened in February, it now has doctors warning about 170 beds across the health service can’t open without more staffing funds. Building is one challenge. Running it, with the country’s biggest state debt, is another.

The Coalition sells discipline, but the arithmetic seems thin. Saul Eslake reckons Wilson’s 2032 cash surplus needs around $8 billion a year in unnamed tax rises or cuts. Weekly bins and tougher bail laws win doorknocks. They don’t balance a budget.

One Nation offers even less. It would keep Loy Yang burning and lift the nuclear ban, but admitted the figures hadn’t been discussed. An independent tracker found no costed measures by August. Its answer to scrutiny? Banning media outlets.

Voters have noticed. DemosAU has Labor’s primary vote at 25 per cent, down from 37 in 2022, behind the Coalition on 30 and One Nation on 20.

So why reward the party with the least detail? Because detail isn’t what’s being bought. Barely one in five voters rate Labor best on cost of living, and the Coalition does little better. Many One Nation supporters don’t see it as a government-in-waiting. They simply no longer believe the majors. For a protest vote, missing costings aren’t a dealbreaker.

Carroll’s reply? “It’s Wharfie time.” It’s Fremantle’s rallying cry to energise their players and fans. Last Saturday the Dockers cranked it up 17 points clear with four minutes left. Brisbane used the noise as fuel and kicked the last four goals.

With 58 days to go until the Victorian Election, every side should take note. Labor wants a lift for the final four minutes. The Coalition is defending a lead on an unfinished plan. One Nation is feeding off the noise without one.

The duopoly may no longer be too big to fail, but a minute is a long time in politics.

Sources

The Inside Word