Half-time plays 

It’s half-time in the 2028 Queensland politics grand final.

The latest polling indicates the Crisafulli-led blue team is on track to go back-to-back. But they know the game is far from over. Many were there when they blew a commanding lead to lose to Annastacia Palaszczuk in the 2015 decider. They’re taking it one game at a time. There is no Wharfie Time coming out of 1 William Street.

Labor, on the other hand, is unsure if the current coach is the one to lead them back to the promised land. Many credit Steven Miles’ performance in the 2024 big dance as critical in limiting the loss and having the red team in with a chance at the next poll.

But playing from Opposition is very different and requires a different strategy to penetrate your opponent’s defence. Learning to be relentlessly negative is not something that comes naturally to most human beings. Reports from anonymous sources indicate some Labor MPs are wondering if a different skipper would fare better. But for now, the Labor Leader has the full backing of the board.

Just like in footy, in politics momentum can shift quickly. Queensland experienced its first credit downgrade in 20 years this past month. The current Government has done well to neutralise issues related to the Olympics, but potential thorns remain. The Victoria Park U-turn wasn’t met with boos from the Queensland crowd, while rowing in Rocky seems (for now) to be headed for gentler waters for the Government.

Halfway out from the next election, it may seem fanciful to compare an election campaign two years away with an 80-minute NRL or AFL match. But then again, a team doesn’t solely win a Premiership on grand final day. It’s merely the final hurdle. The campaign begins, in some cases, years out with list development, followed by a gruelling home-and-away season and then the finals period itself.

Chris Fagan won his first flag in 2024, but the groundwork was laid years beforehand. Neither the LNP nor Labor will win or lose the next election only because one plays a better game on election day 2028.

The Government was elected with a clear mandate on issues such as crime, health, debt and delivering the Olympics. Every set of six from here on needs to be focused on working towards these outcomes.

Meanwhile, the Opposition needs to be disciplined in prosecuting a reason for change. This is tough up against a first-term government that, in the eyes of the public, is yet to grow stale. But Hail Mary plays are unlikely to get them back in the ball game. If they change leader, it needs to come with a game plan and not just a different way of talking to the players.