‘Bold but Faithful’

Right now, politics feels noisy, but when you step back from the clamour and look at Queensland’s polling, a calmer and far more revealing picture comes into focus. It is a picture that fits squarely within the spirit of Queensland’s motto: Audax at Fidelis or ‘Bold but Faithful’.

The latest polling shows the LNP leading Labor 56 per cent to 44 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis. That is not a narrow edge. It is a clear and comfortable lead, and one that has edged slightly upward since the last state election.

On the primary vote, the LNP sits at around 34 per cent, Labor at 28 per cent, and One Nation at approximately 21 per cent, with smaller parties trailing behind. That 21 per cent for One Nation is significant. It signals frustration in parts of the electorate and a willingness among some voters to engage with sharper, more populist messaging.

While alternative voices are gaining attention, they are not reshaping the fundamental structure of political support.

A major reason for that stability appears to be leadership.

Premier David Crisafulli currently holds a net positive approval rating of roughly +16 per cent, with about 39 per cent of voters viewing him favourably compared with 23 per cent unfavourably. In modern politics, where leaders often struggle to maintain even neutral standing, that is a strong position. Opposition Leader Steven Miles, by contrast, sits on a net negative rating of around minus 10 per cent.

The main driver of Crisafulli’s agenda has been addressing social issues in ways that mitigate the risk of being outflanked. The introduction of new hate speech laws is a clear example of this dual-purpose approach. It delivered a policy outcome justified by the protection of social cohesion, while simultaneously closing off a potential line of attack from political rivals. The strategy seems clear: keep the core message consistent with the promises made during the election, whilst using measures like the hate speech laws to head off political attacks on key cultural and security issues.

Approval ratings are not everything, but they are a useful measure of trust. At this stage, trust appears to be leaning decisively toward the government.

This is where the state embodies its motto.

Boldness in politics is often mistaken for loudness. In reality, bold does not have to mean theatrical or combative. It can mean clarity – being decisive in direction and confident in purpose. David Crisafulli has projected certainty, even amid intense debate across a range of issues. Voters do not appear to be punishing that clarity. Polling suggests they are rewarding it.

The faithful element is equally visible. Despite One Nation’s notable primary vote, the LNP’s strong two-party-preferred position indicates many conservative-leaning voters are ultimately remaining loyal when it comes to choosing a government. They may explore alternatives. They may voice dissatisfaction. But when faced with the final choice, they are returning to what they perceive as steady and reliable.

That faith has prevented populist momentum from overtaking the broader conservative base.

Taken together, the polling paints a picture of an electorate that is more measured than the public discourse might suggest.

Queenslanders are clearly concerned about everyday pressures. They are not disengaged and they are not apathetic. But they also do not appear to be chasing disruption for disruptions’ sake. The LNP’s mid-50s two-party-preferred standing suggests continuity and predictability are being valued over rhetorical intensity.

In political environments volume often dominates perception. However, volume does not equal trust.

The sharpest soundbites may trend online. But when Queenslanders are asked who they prefer to lead them, the numbers indicate they prefer steadiness over spectacle.

At this point in the cycle, the state’s political mood appears resolute and pragmatic – qualities that increasingly define Crisafulli’s leadership. While many voices compete for attention, it is leadership that is bold in direction and faithful in delivery that is ultimately being heard where it counts.