Liberals crash and burn, but could a phoenix rise from the ashes?

Two rays of hope have emerged from the smoking rubble of the 2025 election result for Bob Menzies’ once-proud Liberals. In the affluent urban suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney, green shoots have appeared. 

Two Liberal candidates, Tim Wilson and Gisele Kapterian, have risen from the dead and are on track to reclaim Goldstein (Melbourne) and possibly Bradfield (Sydney) from Teal MP Zoe Daniels and candidate Nicolette Boele, respectively. And in Kooyong, the race between incumbent Monique Ryan and Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer is tightening. 

This symbolism should not be underestimated. 

At the beginning of the week, the Liberals were on track to hold no inner-urban seats anywhere in the capital cities. 

Pre-election, the Coalition held 57 seats. Post-election, it’s looking more like low 40s. Conversely, Labor has rocketed from 78 seats to within 90 seats at the time of writing. 

Saturday’s result was the first time, in my memory, that the physics of political dynamics was thrown on its head. 

The Australian electorate – led by Gen Z and the Millennial voters – closely followed by Generation X – surged emphatically to vote for an ALP majority Government led by Anthony Albanese.

Equally, these three large cohorts, along with multicultural Australians, rejected Peter Dutton’s leadership, and the Liberal Party.

If it were not for the Baby Boomers, the silent generation and regional Australia, the bulk of whom are National Party voters, the result could have been far worse. 

There are now two decisions the Coalition must make:

1. The Liberal Party must select a leader and deputy leader.
2. The National Party must select a leader and deputy leader.

Let’s deal with the latter first.

David Littleproud and the Nationals performed well, retaining all their seats, and nearly unseated MP for Bendigo, Lisa Chester. 

Littleproud will be re-endorsed as Leader of the Nationals, whilst the Deputy Leader position, previously held by Perin Davey, will be thrown open. As the third candidate on the joint Senate ticket, Davey failed to secure a spot because of the strong anti-Liberal vote that swept NSW. The Deputy spot in the Nationals could go to one of three women in the Senate: Bridget McKenzie or Susan McDonald. 

But the real battle is who will pick up the pieces and be the next leader for the Liberal Party. 

In my mind, there is only one option to lead the Liberal Party, current Deputy Leader Sussan Ley and her potential running mates Ted O’Brien or Dan Tehan.

It’s a lay-down misère. Women have deserted the Liberal Party over the last three election cycles. 

The only way to stop the rot is to elect Ley from regional NSW, who has a proven parliamentary record. What better way to send a signal to female voters who have lost trust in the party.

For deputy, there are several worthy contenders. Ted O’Brien from Queensland is one of the few shadows who developed a coherent alternative energy plan, notwithstanding the nuclear scare campaign.  More importantly, he is one of the few MPs who can speak fluent Mandarin, essential if the Liberals are to communicate with and win back the trust of the 1.4 million Chinese diaspora community. The anti-China and anti-immigration rhetoric towards the end of the campaign by Peter Dutton drove the Chinese votes right into the ALP camp. Alternatively, Dan Tehan from regional Victoria is an experienced MP and could be a safe pair of hands for the party.

Whilst there are other leadership contenders, notably Angus Taylor, his brand is temporarily damaged after the poorly executed campaign. And as for others like SAS veteran Andrew Hastie and Senator James Paterson (who sits in the wrong house), their time is yet to come. 

And now, to the victor. It would be remiss of me not to congratulate Anthony Albanese and the ALP team for running such a disciplined campaign. The Prime Minister can take a bow as the only PM since John Howard, in 2004, to win back-to-back elections. He now joins the rare pantheon of ALP leaders who have overseen thumping victories.

But a word of caution. Large majorities can lead to overreach, hubris, and ultimately humiliation with history littered with examples. Only time will tell.

One thing is for sure. If the Liberal Party is to become competitive before the end of the decade, it must win back urban Australia.  

The green shoots in Goldstein and Bradfield might be the beginning of a Liberal phoenix rising from the ashes.