Change is the constant

Some days you wake up and everything is rosy. Other days you wake up and realise you’ve got egg on your face. Time to fess up about some eggs…

The title of my blog in November last year was ‘Feels like the last sitting week of the 47^th Parliament’. I can assure you, at the time it did feel that way. That said, the old adage that a day is a long time in politics remains as true today as it always has. Change is the constant, and more than ever, rapid change is the constant.

As I write this, we are less than a week out from the Parliament returning, followed by the Albanese Government’s fourth Budget being delivered on Tuesday 25^th March. Prior to Cyclone Alfred crossing the Queensland coast on Saturday 8^th March, the prospect of another budget was virtually nil. 

But, as well as devastating parts of South East Queensland, Cyclone Alfred put a wrecking ball through Anthony Albanese’s plan to call an election on Sunday 9^th March. Instead, the Prime Minister was bunkered down in Queensland, his opponents home turf.

The Government will now turn its mind to whether or not to proceed with Budget Estimates, due to commence in the second week of April. Alternatively, the PM will make the drive to the Governor-General’s residence the weekend after the Budget to fire the starter gun, thus avoiding Budget Estimates.

The question then for the PM becomes, how long should the campaign be? Short and sharp? Or string it out to seriously scrutinise the Opposition? The intent may be to turn up the pressure on Peter Dutton, in an attempt to land some big hits on the Leader of the Opposition 

If the campaign is short and sharp, to me, it indicates Labor is ready to go, and go hard until election day. 33 days from the end of March means a May 3 election. Alternatively, 33 days from the 7^th April means Estimates will likely proceed, but brought forward by a week and shortened by a week, which means a May 10 election.

Either way, the dice is about to be rolled. I now boldly predict the election will be called for …..May.