The Trend is Your Friend… Take 2

While many politicians will be quick to say a state election result has no implications for a federal poll, rest assured that behind the scenes, there are very active discussions about what Saturday’s result means for next year’s contest. Both sides walk away with reasons to be encouraged, which speaks to a larger question – have we now seen the high-water mark for support for independent parties?

The Liberal National Party is breathing a huge sigh of relief that they can indeed win state elections. Another loss, in addition to ending David Crisafulli’s political career, would have called into question the very existence of a merged Liberal-National party, with chatter causing untold damage in the lead-up to the federal election.

Instead, the federal opposition will have the alignment and resources of a state government to apply further pressure to an already embattled Albanese government. Polling already has Blair as in-play for the LNP, and now the federal seats of both Ryan and Brisbane can be added, given the result in the state seat of Maiwar, which the Greens will barely hold.

The Australian Labor Party, however, takes away just as much, or possibly even more, confidence from this result. There is universal praise for the Party HQ campaign machine, and unusually, this praise crosses often heated factional lines. The ALP campaign demonstrated a clear ability to walk and chew gum, with significant pressure applied to an LNP opposition at a statewide level while engaging Greens campaigning head-on in localised electorates. Rather than feeling beaten down on all sides, Queensland Labor operatives, volunteers, and affiliated unions are ready to make their case to all parts of the political spectrum. The prospect of campaigning against both Peter Dutton and Max Chandler-Mather at the same time will generate a groundswell of Labor support much greater than what was just witnessed over the weekend.

The ALP is also hoping that Queensland continues its historical trend of supporting one political party at the state level while supporting the other side on a federal level. Think of Prime Minister John Howard and Premier Peter Beattie.

The combination of these trends means that the ALP is increasingly confident of holding Moreton, while also retaking Griffith, winning Leichhardt, and putting in strong campaigns in seats such as Brisbane and Bonner.

Both the LNP and the ALP have shown over the last few weeks that they can now take the fight to minor parties such as the Greens, One Nation, and Katter’s Australian Party. Expect to see more of this going into next year. If the trend continues, expect to see a smaller, not larger, crossbench.