Resurrection or ruin, it’s life or death for the Liberal Party 

Thirty years ago, the Coalition romped into power, winning a record 94 seats from the Keating ALP Government, including my seat old of Richmond in northern New South Wales. 

I joined this Parliamentary Class of ‘96 along with Anthony Albanese and Pauline Hanson. History shows mixed fortunes: In 1998, Pauline failed to win the seat of Blair when she moved across from Oxley (following a redistribution); I lost my seat in 2004; and the Member for Grayndler went on to become Prime Minister, leading the ALP to a second victory at the 2025 election!

Albanese’s landslide 94-seat win was a mirror image of John Howard’s Coalition victory in 1996, with one big difference: In 1996, Labor held on to 49 lower house seats, while in 2025 the Liberals only held on to 28 seats – the worst result since 1944.

Next week, the Howard Coalition Ministry is gathering to celebrate the 30-year anniversary of the 1996 election victory. While it will be a trip down memory lane, important questions will be asked. Does the Liberal Party have a future? Can the Liberals, under the new leadership of Angus Taylor and Deputy Leader Jane Hume, turn the Coalition’s fortunes around or is it heading to oblivion? 

On the upside, Taylor and Hume are the right age, smart, presentable and experienced. On the downside, they both carry heavy baggage from the disastrous 2025 campaign, although their mea culpa at their first press conference showed clear contrition for the folly of opposing tax cuts and stopping the work-from-home policy. 

Leadership transitions are never easy, but Taylor’s convincing 34-to-17 result last month removes any ambiguity about the wish for change. Taylor has assembled a strong front bench, promoting capability over factional loyalty, as demonstrated by his elevation of moderate Tim Wilson to Shadow Treasurer. Wilson is one of few in the Liberal Party who has demonstrated the intellectual grunt, energy and tenacity to win back a teal seat … and he has the political mongrel to take up the fight up with Treasurer Jim Chalmers. Taylor has also been strategically prudent, maintaining factional balance by retaining many of Sussan Ley’s former shadows ministers while also promoting those on the right, like James Paterson, Andrew Hastie and Jacinta Nampijinpa Price.  

But there’s no time to waste. 

Taylor must stop the Liberal Party’s internal hemorrhage or it will die on his watch. The self-harm must end, the wounds must heal and what remains of the Coalition constituency base must be rejuvenated.

The defections to the right – particularly to One Nation – must stop and trust restored in the once-mighty party of Bob Menzies and John Howard. 

Following the 13 February leadership change, the Liberal Party is now off life support and moving from intensive care to the rehabilitation ward. The political spotlight has finally moved from the Opposition to the thorny issues of immigration, One Nation, ISIS brides, the war in the Middle East, and the economy.

It’s the law of political gravity: Once you stop talking about yourself, the voters move on to other – real – issues like cost-of-living pressures exacerbated by rising inflation, fuel prices and interest-rate hikes.

So, can the Liberals recover? Despite recent traumas, opinion polls show the federal Coalition has stabilised. The rise of One Nation is plateauing (post Pauline Hanson’s comment there are no “good Muslims”), and there has been a dip in the primary vote for Labor. 

The first real test for federal Liberals and Nationals leader David Littleproud is the live hand grenade handed to Angus Taylor by former leader Sussan Ley. Ley’s resignation from parliament will force a by-election in the southern NSW seat of Farrer on 9 May. 

It will be a four-corner contest between popular independent Michelle Milthorpe, One Nation, the Liberals and the Nationals, or five ways should the ALP contest the election, which is unlikely. If the Coalition can build momentum and win back disgruntled conservative voters, it might be in with a chance, but odds are Michelle Milthorpe will win, or a combination of preference flows could get One Nation over the line. 

The more serious situation for the Liberal Party is the train wreck expected in the South Australia election on 21 March. The popular Peter Malinauskas Labor Government will be easily returned. Potentially, the SA Liberal Party could be reduced to only two seats, with opposition beneficiaries being One Nation led by former Liberal Senator Cory Bernardi, and a collection of independents including former SA Liberal leader, David Spiers who is running as an independent. 

If there are any green shoots for the federal Liberals, it’s the basket-case state of Victoria where Millennial Liberal leader Jess Wilson is gaining traction against an unpopular CFMEU-linked Jacinta Allan Government. The Victoria state election is not due until 28 November 2026, but it will be a true testing ground if the Liberals can bounce back. 

We know the die is cast for South Australia, and the Farrer by-election is a long shot for the Liberals. Hope now rests on the Victoria Liberal Party to lead the federal Liberals back to electoral health. 

Next week’s 30-year Howard Government celebration may prove a timely reminder of a once-robust party, and the catalyst for Angus Tayor and David Littleproud to lead a resurrection of conservative politics. 

If they don’t succeed, the Liberal Party may as well be ministered last rites.