The fragility behind the majority

November 2025 delivered the clearest indication yet that Australian politics remains volatile despite the Albanese Government’s commanding 94-seat majority. While media coverage fixates on the Coalition’s tensions and energy policy, the government operates with acute awareness that its majority rests on a historically low primary vote and an increasingly transactional electorate. The urgency driving bills like the EPBC reflects the reality that without tangible wins on housing and productivity, Labor faces a tough verdict in 2028.

The Indonesia-Australia security treaty

The most substantive achievement for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese this month was the 12 November agreement with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto on a new bilateral Treaty on Common Security, scheduled for formal signing in January 2026. Following the successful US state visit in October, this diplomatic outcome demonstrates the Albanese Government’s continued strength in foreign affairs.

Energy policy

Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s 13 November announcement to abandon the net zero by 2050 target represents the Coalition’s most significant policy shift since the May election. Her framing – “We are not pursuing net zero; we are pursuing energy affordability and emissions reduction” – attempts to reposition the debate around cost-of-living pressures. The Coalition now faces a defining challenge: selling this policy in outer- and inner-metropolitan seats where hip-pocket pressures intersect with genuine climate concerns.

Meanwhile, Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s appointment as COP31’s ‘President for Negotiations’ – despite Turkey hosting the summit – presents optical challenges. The Opposition has already weaponised this as evidence of a ‘part-time energy minister’ more focused on international summits than domestic power bills. With Bowen holding this significant role while energy costs keep rising, the government risks appearing disconnected from household concerns just as the Coalition pivots to cost-of-living messaging.

Labor’s primary vote vulnerability

The strategically significant but under-examined dynamic is Labor’s acute awareness of its own fragility. Its 94-seat majority and 58-42 two-party-preferred vote (per latest Newspoll) masks a primary vote stuck at 36% – historically precarious for a governing party. This vulnerability drives the government’s frenetic legislative pace: EPBC reforms, student debt reduction, renewable energy targets – all reflecting a government that understands soft support demands delivery.

Nation’s resurgence: A warning for both majors 

One Nation’s polling has surged to 15% nationally, and it now consistently exceeds the Greens. Support has reached 18% in Queensland, 16.5% in Western Australia and 14.5% in New South Wales. 

For Labor, One Nation threatens outer-suburban and regional seats where housing and cost-of-living pressures dominate. For the Coalition – whose primary vote has collapsed to 24% – it creates a two-front war: competing for its conservative base while reassuring moderate suburban voters wary of its influence. The speculation around Barnaby Joyce potentially defecting adds another combustible element.

The housing delivery imperative and Labor’s race against time

Beneath November’s political developments lies the fundamental challenge that will likely determine 2028: housing delivery. Labor’s procurement reforms, planning streamlining and infrastructure investment represent ‘supply-side progressivism’, which dramatically increases supply rather than redistributing existing resources.

The political reality is unforgiving: with roughly 30 months before voters judge the government’s record, it needs visible construction cranes and falling rental vacancy rates by mid-to-late 2027. EPBC reforms and infrastructure investment have long lead times. If housing affordability hasn’t demonstrably improved by then, Labor’s seemingly endless majority could well be at risk.

Looking forward: A government racing the clock

The Coalition faces genuine challenges – its energy policy needs to be sold to the public, and the hard work of having door-to-door conversations begin. Its next test comes with immigration policy, for which it must craft a message that builds a working majority that includes moderate voters.

But anyone assuming the government has six to nine years up its sleeve misreads both its primary-vote fragility and delivery pressures. Developments in November reveal a government that is in a race – not against the Coalition, but against time itself. On housing, wages, inflation and emissions, there isn’t a moment to spare. Every parliamentary sitting day lost to procedural battles or Senate delay edges the government closer to electoral judgment without runs on the board.

For the Coalition, the challenge is developing detailed, credible alternatives that convince outer- and inner-metropolitan voters that its approach delivers change that meets the moment while projecting the stability to hold the Treasury benches. With minor parties circling both parties’ flanks and voter patience wearing thin, Australian politics enters a period where execution matters more than announcements and delivery trumps rhetoric.

The next 24 months will determine whether the government’s approach produces measurable improvements or whether voters, confronted with the same pressures that delivered this government its majority, decide it’s time for another change. In this environment, both major parties can’t afford to waste a single day.