Nowhere to Grow

The last possible day for the next federal election is not until 20 May 2028. As the saying goes, if a week is a long time in politics, then this is an eternity.

As we have seen with past elections, outcomes can swing either way, particularly this far out. No one should be arrogant enough to call it for 2028, but let’s give it a crack anyway. Right now, it’s PM Anthony Albanese and his Labor team that have the inside run, for as far as the eye can see. Their biggest challenge is not the other competitors, but staying focused on the issues that matter to ordinary people.

In a regular election run-up, the winning and losing teams are usually not far apart, whether in the number of seats held, percentage gap, or swing. In this case, not only does Labor have a massive advantage on both counts, but it also benefits from a deeply divided Liberal Party and coalition, which would otherwise be its partner.

This situation has not occurred for a very long time, and the consequences are profound. For example, the now-defunct coalition agreement prevented three-cornered contests, where the Liberals and Nationals would compete for the same seat. Instead, they threw support behind the sitting coalition partner. Without this critical agreement, both the Liberals and Nationals are at a disadvantage, while everyone else gains an advantage. In a three-way contest, effectively “the same side” competes for votes, resources, and funding, creating electoral conflict.

There is a potential for confusion if outcomes are only examined in the context of previous election results, as these can produce false positives and negatives. For instance:

• False positive: The Nationals didn’t lose any seats, so they “did well.” In reality, they can’t win many more seats and face a growing challenge from One Nation and the Liberals.
• False negative: The Liberals lost many seats, so they “did badly.” True, but they could recover if they unite around mainstream policy.
• Another false positive: Labor won many seats, so they “did exceptionally well.” Yes, they performed strongly, but not on the all-important primary vote. This reliance on second and third preferences leaves them somewhat vulnerable.

With Pauline Hanson’s One Nation looking to the future—through a potential name change, leadership shift, and a new funding partner attached to Barnaby Joyce—anything is possible. The reality, however, is that Labor remains dominant with its eye on another win. The Liberals cannot move forward without a serious mainstream coalition partner, and the Nationals are solely focused on holding ground, even at their own expense.

It is too early to call, but the next election is shaping up as a fight for survival for the Coalition, rather than a contest offering a credible alternative government. Keep an eye out for the new One Nation, a proliferation of Teals, and a patchwork Coalition with nowhere to grow.