It’s the world according to Trump

I don’t recall a time in my life when the name of one person, let alone two, have generated so much conversation and commentary amongst family, friends, colleagues, professional networks, and in the fourth estate.  

Since his ascendancy to President in November, this trophy has belonged to Donald Trump and second prize to Elon Musk. 

Think of any adjective (positive or negative), and it has likely been used to describe Trump.  Over recent weeks in Australia and many other countries, vitriolic descriptions have outweighed those of admiration.

If Trump followed normal political doctrine, this might worry him.  But as Disruptor-in-Chief, I think Trump and his people planned to take this hit in the firm belief they can deliver their agenda.  

Trump knows that disruption, though often unsettling, can serve as a powerful catalyst of positive change – in this case, strengthen team USA.  The critical factor here is whether the disruptors possess a clear vision and strategy that goes beyond the initial upheaval.

Together with self-professed master of disruptive technology companies, Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX, PayPal and X), it’s no surprise Trump has adopted a disruptive leadership approach – on steroids!

Like it or not, Trump has been clear for a long time that his key priorities are tariffs and fairness in trade; NATO member defence budgets; illegal migration; activating technology for freedom and productivity; government waste and really delivering for the people; industry policy; oil and gas; and anti wokeness.  

So, how does he effect change when the normal political and diplomatic channels have failed to move the dial, and when the institutional inertia of governments is so effective at wearing down political priorities and will? 

The answer is deliberate and unprecedented disruptive leadership.   

Trump and Musk can’t do this alone.  Many of Trump’s key appointments are like explosive experts – people on a mission to blow-up existing institutions and practices.  This early disruption is intended to bring money and investment into the US at the expense of the rest of the world.  In the short term, Trump is banking on this inflow being larger than the damage done to the US economy, and hoping the early disruption is followed by a second phase focused on rebuilding.   

I suspect Clayton Christensen, who pioneered Disruptive Management Theory in 1995, never contemplated the amplification of his work to the global geopolitical stage that now sees the most rapid changes to long-held global relations, markets and defence alliances. 

Whether you support Trump’s government or not, Australian businesses and governments should look carefully through the smoke and haze of disruption to Trump’s long-held beliefs and stated goals about making America great again.  

On steel and aluminium tariffs, and perhaps on our overall bilateral relationship with the US, it seems the Australian Government was slow off the blocks and, sadly, has been caught short.  At least eight years ago, the US called out these industries for being subsidised by Australian taxpayers and creating an unfair trading advantage.  Nothing has changed since then with these subsidises (except perhaps they have increased). Add some unflattering words spoken about Trump by our top diplomat and politicians, and Trump’s decision is hardly surprising.

Christensen points out that if your business is facing an existential threat through disruption on either the demand or supply side of your business, there are counter strategies that can successfully be deployed.

With a federal election only weeks away, I do hope our senior political leaders take time to review Christensen’s work on countering disruption. Otherwise, pressure will mount on more domestic sectors (think pharmaceuticals, agriculture and technology) and on the pillars of our trade and military alliances with the US.