The Inside Word
It’s time
‘It’s time’ was the famous election slogan that swept Labor’s Gough Whitlam into power in the 1972 federal election, ending 23 years of Liberal-National Party rule.
It’s time now for Anthony Albanese to call the 2025 election.
Some political pundits predict the 2025 election may be called this weekend for April 5th, but the smart money is on the following Sunday (the day after Western Australia’s state election) for April 12th.
Cost of living is the central issue of this election.
The Coalition’s main thrust is ‘are you better off today than you were three years ago.’ Clearly, the answer is no.
Despite a long-awaited 0.25 per cent reduction in interest rates, the re-election narrative for Labor is a challenge. Housing and the cost of renting, crime, energy and health care are top-of-mind for punters, despite inflation stabilising. Middle and marginal Australians are unhappy, which is a bad place for incumbent governments.
Seeking a return to safe ground, this week Albanese announced a major Medicare funding increase to encourage more doctors to bulk bill.
Past ‘Medicare Scare’ campaigns have been highly effective at moving votes to Labor, so it’s no surprise Peter Dutton’s Opposition immediately matched the ALP’s $8.5 billion funding, swiftly avoiding a deadly political wedge.
This begs the question: How can the government or Opposition claim superior fiscal discipline when both parties keep matching the election spendathon?
No wonder they’ve stepped up the character assassination of each other’s leader as a point of difference.
On the domestic front, the Albanese Government is furiously trying to remove any political barnacles before calling the election.
Labor’s signature Made in Australia policy was in jeopardy this week after South Australia’s Labor Government called in the administrators at the Whyalla Steelworks in a pre-election bailout. PM Anthony Albanese promised an additional $2.4 billion to help underwrite Australia’s second remaining steelworks.
However, assuming a domestic miracle, can Whyalla Steelworks survive President Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on Australian aluminum and steel?
Elsewhere, barnacles remain. The government could haemorrhage votes in crucial ‘salmon’ seats in Tasmania, or in Western Australia following delayed approvals of major gas projects in the North West Shelf Venture. WA is a resource-heavy state and any resistance to huge resource projects could have major political implications with the fly-in fly-out population in Perth’s marginal seats.
Ironically, both these decisions remain in limbo, stuck in the office of the Minister for the Environment and Water, Tanya Plibersek, who’s a potential leader if Anthony Albanese loses the election. It’s a ‘Catch-22’ situation for the government: Approve projects, win over blue-collar voters but alienate the left, or reject/postpone decisions and win over green voters (and their preferences) at the expense of traditional ALP voters.
In Western Sydney, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke’s unseemly haste to organise huge special citizenship ceremonies in the federal seat of Watson begs the question: Is the ALP heartland in trouble?
These heartland seats have the highest Islamic population in the country and traditionally vote Labor. Word on the ground is the Muslim constituency is unhappy with the government’s response to Gaza. Labor fears these traditionally Labor voters are switching to independent Muslim parties like Senator Fatima Payman’s Australia’s Voice party. Meanwhile, Australia’s Jewish community has already mobilised against the government over its handling of the conflict.
Lastly, the presence of three foreign warships off the coast of Australia has suddenly elevated national security on everyone’s agenda. It’s a no-win situation for the government that undermines its carefully recalibrated China credentials: Make a strong stand against China but risk its trade wrath, or stay quiet and appear weak domestically to protect delicate trade agreements.
So, Albo, bring on the election … It’s time!