The seven-minute drive that will start the election campaign

There’s only one story in Australian politics right now.

It’s the guessing game about when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will direct the driver of his C1 limousine up leafy Dunrossil Drive in Yarralumla to the iron gates of the Governor-General’s residence. 

It’s a mere seven minutes from the Prime Minister’s driveway at Parliament House, but the journey to dissolve parliament and advise the election date is a time-honoured piece of political theatre.  

More than that, it’s enormously beneficial to the incumbent as it will allow him to own the early images of the campaign and will serve as a final opportunity for him to appear Prime Ministerial before the hostilities commence in earnest.

Pre-warned and pre-positioned television cameras will capture the journey, and Canberra news bureau chiefs will already have conspired to share footage from their agreed positions on the route to ensure they collectively cover every angle.

This gives Mr Albanese the first media ‘win’ of the campaign – all without having to answer any questions.

The incumbency advantage continues in the order the two leaders will then address the media. Mr Albanese will likely call a media conference in the Prime Minister’s courtyard at Parliament House to officially announce the date and set his tone and messages for the campaign.

Thus, he’ll have had two bites of the media cherry before Opposition Leader Peter Dutton gets to the microphone.

Once we get to day two of the campaign, all bets are off.  But it’s almost a certainty that the Prime Minister will win the first day, based purely on first-mover advantage.

As to when he will take that car ride, there have been conflicting signs. Early this week, the SAS Group’s contacts were advising us the federal Labor campaign headquarters was being stood up on Saturday – confirming the feverish speculation of a Sunday announcement. (In fact, Mr Albanese can also visit the GG on Monday and still call an election for April 5th.)

The brutal attacks on Opposition Leader Peter Dutton mid-week over his legitimate investments added weight to the theory that we’re very close to the start of the contest.

Mr Albanese has called an urgent Cabinet meeting for Monday. He may want his entire leadership group in a show of strength at the start of the campaign, or it may be nothing more than a red herring designed to deflect media questions and confuse his opponents.

One complicating factor that hasn’t received much attention from those betting on a visit to Yarralumla this weekend is the NRL’s much-hyped opening round in Las Vegas.

Aside from being a diehard rugby league fan, the Prime Minister will also be mindful that he’ll be competing for media bandwidth with a far more popular and entertaining show – live from sin city.  This will not only interfere with the clear air he will want for his messages, but it also risks irking sports fans who have waited all summer for the football to start.

However, if the PM waits another week, he will be plonking the April 12 election on the first day of the Jewish Passover – complicated in most elections, fraught with danger in this one where claim and counterclaim of antisemitism will doubtless feature in the campaign. 

Such are the external factors that weigh on the minds of leaders as they settle their election timing. No doubt they will continue to race around the PM’s head as the wheels of the 7-Series BMW start rolling up Dunrossil Drive towards his date with destiny.

Photo credit: The Prime Minister’s instagram page