A Test of patience

The key to winning government in a Westminster democracy, such as Australia, can be described with a cricket analogy – it’s a game of Test cricket, not a Twenty20 slug-a-thon.

Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the UK Conservatives (the Tories), is illustrating that point best and provides a model for Angus Taylor to follow.

The Tory party is nearly 200 years old and commonly considered the most successful political party in Western democracy. Badenoch became leader in 2024 at the lowest ebb in the Party’s history.

Following a disastrous election result, they were reduced to a miserly 121 seats in a 652-seat parliament. The beginning of her leadership saw the Tories sink in the polls to the right-wing populist party Reform, led by the charismatic Nigel Farage. Throughout 2025, she then had several high-profile Conservatives defect to the Farage-led outfit. Sound familiar?

Although the Tories continued to languish in the polls, paradoxically, a Labour Prime Minister with a massive majority became increasingly unpopular (again, familiar?). Council elections in May, where Reform made huge gains at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives, were the final nail in the coffin for Keir Starmer.

Over the past two years, Badenoch has played a steady innings at the crease. She hasn’t panicked, she hasn’t sought to find a silver bullet, and she hasn’t tried to out-Farage Farage.

Badenoch has outlined clear conservative principles by attacking the Labour Government from the Right on issues such as government spending and energy policy, and recently (as a black woman) strongly opposed the UK Government paying reparations. She has also criticised Farage for being ‘pro-Putin’ and strongly condemned remarks by Reform MPs that Black English footballers were not really English.

After two years in the polling doldrums, Badenoch is now starting to put some runs on the board. At the time of writing, the last four nationwide opinion polls have put the Conservatives ahead of Reform. She is also within touching distance of Labour, whose new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, is experiencing a honeymoon period.

She might not be knocking every second ball out of the park, but single by single, she’s seen a governing Party with a huge majority change leader and a populist rival with seemingly unassailable momentum begin to implode. With three years until the next UK election, notwithstanding an early poll, she stands every chance of becoming the next British PM.

As alluded to above, Angus Taylor has, and continues to face, similar challenges. But if he takes the same approach as Badenoch, he could well find himself restoring the Coalition’s seemingly dire electoral fortunes.

He is up against both a Prime Minister and a government who, despite a massive majority, are in polling trouble. The Melbourne Cup Day rate rise from the RBA won’t be to Labor’s electoral benefit.

There are already whispers within LNP circles that Albanese will not be the Labor leader they face at the next election.

One Nation has a history of imploding, and there are some early warning signs this could occur again. David Farley has only been in the Parliament a few months, but there is constant conjecture he will defect. Although polling strongly, One Nation is still only a comfortable third ahead of the Victorian election.

In recent days, Nationals Leader Matt Canavan announced he will attempt to switch to the Lower House and run for the Central Queensland seat of Capricornia. Both Hanson and her high-profile adviser, James Ashby (who lives in the seat), have blinked, and neither will run.

Which segues to another big call for Hanson in 2027. Does she run for a House seat, and if so, where? Even if she chooses an electorate she’s likely to win, she would still need to devote a disproportionate amount of time to that electorate (particularly if the polls turn). Every moment she spends there is a moment she’s not travelling around this vast geographic country of ours speaking to voters in the other 150 seats.

If she opts to remain a Senator, this too could kill One Nation’s momentum. The Party is built around her. She could look like a bottler who squibs the chance to run for top office.

Meanwhile, Angus Taylor should stay patient. He should focus on keeping the score ticking over and, when Albanese – or Hanson – bowls up a full toss, hitting it out of the ground. There is plenty of cricket left in this term for him to make a mark at the crease.