Never let a good crisis go to waste

Winston Churchill’s insight cuts a little deep right now. Chaos is not good for business, but savvy politicians recognise the value of a crisis. Periods of disruption create space for governments to reposition, reshape narratives, and pursue policy directions that might otherwise face resistance. Chaos, in that sense, is not just a byproduct of politics; it can be an opportunity. For industry, however, the equation is very different.

Businesses rely on stability, predictability, and clear policy direction to allocate capital, manage risk, and plan for growth. When those signals become inconsistent or shift too frequently, the result is instability and uncertainty. Investment decisions are delayed, costs increase, and confidence softens. While political actors can use uncertainty to demonstrate responsiveness and retain flexibility, industry is left managing the downstream impact. What is politically useful often becomes commercially disruptive.

As we move into the second quarter of 2026, the operating environment – globally and here in Queensland – feels quite fluid. Economic uncertainty persists. Inflation remains around 3.8%, above the RBA’s 2-3% target range, with the RBA recently predicting a possible rise to 6%. Such highs influence both policy settings and consumer behaviour. Governments are fiscally constrained, central banks remain cautious, and electorates are increasingly unsettled. That combination rarely produces decisive reform; more often, it leads to incremental policymaking punctuated by reactive interventions.

In Australia, these pressures are layered. Cost of living, housing accessibility, energy transition, immigration, and workforce constraints are all politically salient – and often competing. For business, that creates an environment where policy direction can evolve quickly as governments respond to shifting priorities.

In Queensland, these dynamics are being amplified by both interstate signals and local structural change. The South Australian election result – where the Liberal Party’s primary vote fell behind One Nation – was not just a local anomaly. It points to a broader fragmentation of the two-party system and reinforces the growing influence of minor parties, particularly in regional electorates.

For the LNP, this sharpens the strategic challenge. The move toward optional preferential voting, as signposted by Premier David Crisafulli, introduces a new layer of risk at a time when preference flows are becoming less predictable. With One Nation maintaining a strong presence across regional Queensland, there is a credible scenario where votes exhaust rather than return, shifting electoral outcomes in ways that were previously less likely.

Overlaying this is the redistribution process, which is already generating community concern in key growth and regional areas. The situation in Hervey Bay is a useful example: what begins as a technical boundary adjustment quickly becomes a broader conversation about representation, services, and political intent. The potential scrapping of the seat of Hill in north Queensland has also sparked considerable disquiet among local voters, amplified by the fact that the current MP is a Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) representative. The LNP doesn’t need to lose any more north Queensland votes to KAP. Redistribution rarely determines outcomes on its own, but it shapes the narrative, and narrative is increasingly influential.

After Easter, attention will sharpen on the pending State Budget, due to be handed down on June 23. Pressure from a range of sources continues to mount on a set of books that are already skinny. Queensland’s relationship with the Albanese Government, and our state’s exposure to global trade markets for major commodities amid supply chain and fuel constraints, make Treasurer David Janetzki’s job even more difficult.

For industry, the current environment is unlikely to deliver clarity in the near term. Scenario planning needs to be continuous rather than periodic. Engagement must extend beyond policy detail to include the broader political context. And organisational agility, both strategic and operational, will be critical.

The challenge is not to predict precisely where things will land, but to remain positioned to respond as conditions evolve. Chaos need not be a crisis. It can also be an opportunity.