The challenge of opposition 

It’s now almost 16 months since the Queensland State election saw the government change from Labor to the Liberal National Party. The result made it clear that Labor’s path back to government must include regional Queensland.

The Crisafulli Government holds 53 seats, Labor holds 35, Katter’s Australia Party holds two, the Greens holds one and there are two independents. Two seats have changed since the election: The LNP took Hinchinbrook from KAP in a by-election, and the Member for Stafford, Jimmy Sullivan, is now an independent after being expelled from Labor caucus in May last year. 

The challenge for Labor is to win back seats in regional Queensland, and the challenge for the LNP is to win more seats in metropolitan Brisbane. For the Opposition, this will require a monumental effort to reverse losses in places such as Townsville (three seats), Rockhampton, Mackay and Maryborough. 

The Opposition is currently reviewing all policies since the election loss with a view to starting with a clean slate.  To date, feedback from the Opposition is that all Queenslanders, regardless of where they live, still place cost-of-living pressures as their number one issue. After that, health and hospital services and home ownership remain the next priorities.

Prior to the last election, Steven Miles was constrained by limited time as Premier to shape Labor’s campaign. However, he did have success with policies such as the 50 cent public transport fares. He now has the opportunity of a full term as Opposition Leader to determine the direction of Labor’s campaign for 2028 and will be cognisant of holding the government to account while announcing new policies for Queenslanders as the alternative government. 

Labor knows future electoral success requires a coordinated statewide campaign that recognises more than half the state’s population lives in rural and regional Queensland. This is a real challenge and regional Queensland members such as Michael Healey, Glenn Butcher and Tom Smith will need to work closely with Steven Miles to address a wide range of needs in regional Queensland. This is an age-old challenge for political parties in large and demographically varied states like Queensland, where a voter in Far North Queensland may have very different expectations to a voter in Central or South East Queensland.

Labor must understand why it lost so many seats in regional Queensland. The answer will no doubt be a complex mix of state and local issues and will vary from seat to seat, but it is too simplistic to say it was simply a desire for change after three terms of a Labor government. Pollster Kos Samaras recently suggested the loss of trust may run much deeper for regional voters. He observed that many feel abandoned by Labor and the pact between these voters and both major parties is broken. If correct, the Labor has an enormous task in front of it.

Not that anyone needs reminding, but Labor lost the three Townsville seats to the LNP – Thuringowa (won by 9.9%), Mundingburra (won by 9.2%) and Townsville (won by 5.6%), as well as the seats of Rockhampton (won by 1.8%) and Mackay (won by 10.2%) for the first time.

Labor must now develop policies that genuinely respond to the needs of regional Queenslanders and take the time to give these voters a reason to return to Labor. This will be made more difficult by a ‘risk averse’ LNP Premier David Crisafulli who is determined to overcome the legacy of Campbell Newman and not be a one-term government. This caution may also influence if and when the LNP choose to pursue changes to the voting system – moving from compulsory preferential voting to optional preferential voting (OPV). In addition, the review of Queensland’s electoral boundaries is underway and any new electorates will come into effect before the next state election in 2028.

Adding to the challenge is the recent rise in the polls of One Nation as voters look to move their support away from the major parties. Whether this represent an opportunity or a threat to the Coalition is it too soon to know. If One Nation continues to poll well and finish second in many contests, it stands to win a swag of seats across Queensland. While polls are only a snapshot in time, at the 2024 state election, more than 70% of preferences from One Nation went to the Coalition. Party strategists in the major parties tasked with providing the answers will be thinking long and hard about how best to respond to this trend.

The Opposition knows its path back to power is through regional Queensland. All Queenslanders care about cost of living, healthcare and housing – and Labor is listening. However, the challenges are immense: A capable David Crisafulli, a change to OPV, an imminent redistribution, and regional Queensland losing trust with both major parties. Opposition is not pleasant, but it could be shorter rather than longer if Labor remain completely focused on delivering for Queenslanders, particularly regional Queenslanders.