Queensland Politics in 2026 – from honeymoon to minefield

As we move into 2026, the political landscape in Queensland is entering a new, more focused phase. Premier David Crisafulli’s LNP Government has wrapped up the honeymoon period afforded new governments, and pressure is now building on two fronts: the need to deliver on ambitious reform promises, and the looming resurgence of a Labor Opposition that is slowly finding its footing after a heavy electoral defeat.

This is the period where the political rubber hits the road for both sides and landmines abound.

Crisafulli Government: From promise to performance

The LNP’s early months were defined by discipline and clear messaging. But now, government becomes less about announcements and more about outcomes. Governing is harder than campaigning and navigating the machinery of government when you’re the one ultimately responsible for it requires a unique skillset. With heightened expectations around child safety reform, law and order, and a clear, consistent energy strategy, the government faces growing scrutiny.

On energy, the policy tension remains unresolved. The government continues to talk up renewables while signalling longer reliance on coal. Industry wants clarity. Investors want certainty. And Queenslanders want bills that don’t spike. The Energy Plan is a start but without a coherent narrative the risk is a political vulnerability open for the Opposition to exploit.

On child safety, the promised structural changes involving more frontline officers, a revamped residential care model, a Reportable Conduct Scheme, and a Commission of Inquiry must translate into genuine improvement. The sector is bruised, fatigued, and wary of reform fatigue. Delivery, not design, will define whether the government maintains public trust and authentic relationship with mission critical service providers.

Labor in opposition: A slow, steady rebuild

By 2026, Queensland Labor will have moved past the introspection phase that followed its 2024 defeat. The internal conversations are shifting from ‘what went wrong’ to ‘what comes next’.

Expect three key developments:

1. Leadership settling, but not yet settled

Labor’s leadership in 2026 will likely remain stable on the surface – a deliberate decision to avoid disunity while rebuilding credibility. But beneath that, the party is testing new talent. A mid-term leadership refresh is not off the table. If polling remains stagnant or if the current leadership struggles to cut through, a transition to new leadership – likely someone with a stronger reform or economic narrative – may emerge. Someone who can actually land a blow on Crisafulli is critical. But Labor will be cautious. They’ve learned that visible instability is punished heavily by Queensland voters.

2. Repositioning on energy

Energy policy will become Labor’s clearest differentiation point. Expect Labor to sharpen its attack on what it will frame as the government’s ‘mixed messages’ and ‘uncertain trajectory’ on the energy transition. They will argue the LNP is jeopardising Queensland’s economic future by undermining investor confidence and slowing renewables integration.

A clear, future-focused and ideological energy pitch will be central to Labor’s attempt at relevance, especially targeted at outer metropolitan seats, exploiting the LNP’s inability as yet to secure support from those seats. The Coalition’s federal division on energy is simply grist for this mill. 

3. Targeting vulnerabilities, especially on child safety

While the Crisafulli Government now owns the reform agenda, Labor will focus on execution gaps – especially any delays, cost overruns, or cultural issues unearthed by the child safety inquiry with a preliminary report due around March.

Labor knows that if the government over-promises and under-delivers, the political price could be significant. Expect sustained questioning around frontline staffing, residential care models, and the implementation of reportable conduct standards. The fact that Labor frontbenchers like Fentiman and Farmer oversaw the child safety system under the last government may temper their attack, but it won’t stop it.

The contest of 2026: Definition and re-definition

This year is not an election year – but it is a defining year.

For the LNP, 2026 is when the government proves whether it has the capability to govern beyond the first wave of optimism. They can’t fall for the us verse them, LNP v ALP vibe that defines time on the Opposition benches. They must govern. For Labor, it is the year the Opposition decides who it wants to be: a restored alternative government, or merely a critic on the sidelines.

In other words, 2026 is the year both sides stop talking about the last election – and start framing the next one. A couple of policy issues will shape that battlefield.