Mid-term test for QLD Govt

Midway through its first term, the Crisafulli Government will face its first electoral test. The Hinchinbrook by-election will take place on November 29, following the resignation of Katter MP Nick Dametto, who is to run for the Townsville mayoralty.

By-elections are almost always unwanted events for any incumbent – even if it’s a seat, as is the case in Hinchinbrook, that is not held by the government. Outside the rare example of a by-election potentially changing the government, voters in these polls know they can kick the incumbent without giving the Opposition the keys to power.

Hinchinbrook is an intriguing seat. Located in North Queensland, for decades it was a safe Nationals, then LNP, seat before it was prised away by the Katter Party in 2017 following a redistribution. Since then, Mr Dametto has cemented his position, recording a winning two-party-preferred margin of 13 per cent at last year’s election. 

But rather than playing a defensive game and merely looking for a ‘best loss possible’ result, the LNP seems to view this poll as a chance to win back the seat.

The LNP has pre-selected former Regional Development Australia Townsville Chief Executive Wayde Chiesa and appear to be pumping resources into the seat. This includes distributing material highlighting that the Katter Party candidate, Mark Malachino, was previously a Labor Party member.

Moreover, the Premier is arguing that a vote for Mr Chiesa will provide Hinchinbrook residents with a voice within government. This could resonate with voters in the rural seat, who generally feel neglected by George Street.

Equally, though, it is a risk for the Premier. Any swing – primary or two-party-preferred – away from the LNP will be used by Labor (even though it can’t win the seat) as an indication that Queenslanders are turning on the Crisafulli Government. 

However, Opposition Leader Steven Miles also needs to be careful. Although no one is expecting his party to win the conservative seat, a poor showing from Labor could undermine his leadership. Also, an LNP victory (or near defeat) could demonstrate that Mr Miles is failing to land a glove on the Premier.

The Labor Party stuck with Mr Miles after a better-than-expected result last October. His ability to seemingly minimise the loss led to the Labor caucus sticking with him as Leader. But growing perceptions within Labor ranks that Mr Miles can’t lead the party back to the promised land could trigger a leadership challenge.

Regardless of the outcome, the result of the Hinchinbrook by-election will be viewed as a barometer on the Crisafulli Government’s performance at the midway mark of the term. It is therefore likely to shape the approach of the Crisafulli Government heading into 2026.