The Inside Word

Political meltdown in the Motherland – Australia take note
A political reckoning could be about to hit the United Kingdom.
One so big that, if it occurs, would be bigger than Brexit and Trump’s election (both times) combined.
According to the opinion polls, there is the distinct possibility that, for the first time since 1922, Britain will have a Prime Minister from neither the Conservative Party nor Labour.
Not only is Reform leader Nigel Farage ahead, but he’s frankly way out in front. The Politico poll of polls, which averages out all credible opinion polls over a 12-month period, has Reform at 30%, Labour on 21%, the Conservatives at 17%, before cascading into smaller figures for minor parties.
Admittedly, Britain is not due for an election for another four years and, as any imbecile could opine, ‘anything could happen in that time’. But even this far out it is worth pondering how Britain got here and what implications it has for politics and policy in Australia.
What does this mean?
To put into context, if this result were replicated at an election it wouldn’t just see the novelty of a non-Tory/Labour leader for the first time in 100 years.
It would significantly wound the Labour Party, seeing them crash out of power in one term despite a large majority.
But the news would be even worse for the Conservatives. It would likely sound the death knell for the most successful political party in the history of western democracy.
The party of Disraeli, Churchill and Thatcher would go the way of the Sizzler all-you-can-eat restaurant.
Why has this happened?
Put simply, the British public have lost faith in both major parties.
The Tories (Conservatives) were a shambles for most of the latter half of their 14 years in office between 2010 and 2024. During this time they had no fewer than five Prime Ministers – three of whom during the final two years in office (including Liz Truss, who lasted a little over 40 days).
But whatever discontent voters had for the Tories has seamlessly transferred to the Labour Government of Sir Keir Starmer. The economy and the budget are in a mess, with some economists suggesting Britain is on course for an IMF bailout.
Immigration – both legal and illegal – also continues to be a hot-button issue. Britain has frankly lost control of its borders (first under the Tories, continued under Labour), with more than 100,000 applications for asylum in the first six months of 2025 alone.
These excessive migration numbers put increased pressure on all basic services – roads, hospitals, schools, housing and much more. Some will be tempted to dismiss these concerns as representing an ignorant-minded fringe, but the numbers suggest the issue is mainstream. No fewer than 71% of British voters, including 56% of Labour voters, say the current PM has handled immigration ‘badly’.
This has allowed the chain-smoking, pint-drinking populist Nigel Farage to skate up the middle into what has now become a commanding lead.
What does it mean for Australia?
So, what does any of this have to do with Australia and politics in this country? A few things to note.
First, and notwithstanding the next UK election may not mirror current polls, it underlines that no political party has a God-given right to exist. As recently as the 2017 UK election the two major parties received a very high 82% of the combined vote; less than a decade later they are polling at 38%.
Some will argue that Australia having both compulsory and preferential voting acts as a guardrail against the rise of outsider politicians such as Farage. Perhaps. But remember Britain, with non-compulsory voting and first-past-the-post, has had a century of uninterrupted duopoly contests for government, which could be about to end.
Second, governments (and oppositions) that refuse to address genuine but sensitive political issues do so at their own long-term peril. This has been the case in the UK with uncontrolled migration, but politicians in this country would be wise to understand that energy policy or housing won’t be fixed by a few focus-group-inspired slogans and winning an election or two in the short term.
Finally, if Labour and/or the Tories turn their fortunes around and Reform bombs at the next election it will be due to having a five-year parliamentary term. The four years ahead provide time to make bold reforms/policy announcements and to sell them to the public. Australia has short three-year terms, which heavily enables a poll-driven culture that sees politicians focused on the here and now at the expense of the medium to long term.
Final observation
In the last decade we’ve seen Brexit, the rise of Trump, the fall of both major parties in France, and a rise of populist leaders elected across western Europe. Ten years ago, no expert would have predicted any of this.
Lesson being – don’t trust any expert when it comes to political predictions (including this author).