A Transformed, but no less busy parliament

The 48th Parliament opens on 22 July, 2025 into a fundamentally altered political environment. There are signs the Albanese Government is embracing ‘supply-side progressivism’—a concept from Ezra Klein’s influential work Abundance—and integrating it into its ‘patriotic progressivism’ vision. This approach represents a significant departure from traditional left-wing approaches, focusing not just on redistributing wealth but on dramatically increasing the supply of essential goods and services for working families.

Labor’s Senate numbers now stand at 29—its strongest position since 1984—whilst securing a 94-seat House majority. This dominance fundamentally alters parliamentary dynamics, reducing the significance of crossbench negotiations whilst enhancing the role of committees and backbench MPs to do policy legwork and advocate for local outcomes.

The coordinated economic messaging delivered through the Prime Minister’s 10 June National Press Club address and the Treasurer’s follow-up speech eight days later demonstrates Labor’s confidence in implementing what Klein calls ‘abundance politics’. Rather than accepting scarcity as inevitable, the Treasurer looks to have embraced Klein’s central thesis that progressive governments should focus relentlessly on increasing supply—more housing, more clean energy, more skilled workers—rather than simply managing existing shortages.

The Treasurer characterises the government’s approach as “reform from the centre, in a world of polarising and unsettling extremes”, using global volatility as leverage to drive grand bargains domestically in the national interest. These bargains will likely include revenue raising, given defence and NDIS pressures on government expenditure.

Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s June 25 National Press Club address—the first by a federal opposition leader in three years—reveals a Liberal Party undergoing substantial recalibration. Her emphasis on moving to the “sensible centre” whilst promising comprehensive policy reviews acknowledges the need to properly understand the Liberal Party’s challenges after going backwards in two consecutive elections. Like any opposition adjusting to new political terrain, the first sitting weeks will be particularly challenging as it finds its rhythm against a confident incumbent government. The $3m superannuation balance policy and its impacts on unrealised capital gains is one opportunity the opposition is rallying around.

Student debt reduction legislation will likely be prioritised in July, fulfilling the Prime Minister’s explicit commitment that this would be “the first piece of legislation we will introduce” when Parliament resumes. The housing agenda outlined in June, including the five per cent deposit plan, is also likely to feature prominently.

Aged care reform implementation remains critical despite the November 1 delayed commencement. The compressed timeline between July parliamentary consideration and November implementation creates opportunities for sector input. The government’s acknowledgment that this delay provides “additional implementation time” suggests willingness to engage with industry concerns whilst maintaining the reform direction.

The Opposition Leader’s promise of comprehensive policy reviews creates significant opportunities for stakeholder input. Her accessible leadership style will likely lead to genuine engagement and dialogue. However, patience should be afforded as the opposition undertakes election reviews and properly understands voting dynamics before finalising policy positions.

The Greens’ adjustment to reduced numbers and new leadership under Larissa Waters will become apparent during July proceedings. Waters’ emphasis on “firm but constructive” opposition to Labor policies, particularly on climate action and housing crisis response, creates potential negotiation opportunities.

The Treasurer’s emphasis on productivity, budget sustainability, and economic resilience as the government’s “three highest priorities” provides the clearest framework for understanding how to land policy change with this government. The Treasurer’s commitment to embedding “productivity at the very core of our second term” through Cabinet processes and regulatory reviews creates opportunities for business engagement beyond traditional parliamentary channels, focused on removing supply constraints rather than managing demand.

The Treasurer’s announcement of the August economic roundtable, limited to 25 participants in the Cabinet room, establishes clear parameters for stakeholder contributions to what will likely be a supply-side minded progressive agenda. His three preconditions—ideas must be in the national interest, budget neutral or positive, and specific rather than abstract—signal a government confident enough to set firm boundaries around policy discourse whilst remaining open to collaborative input that is focused on increasing productivity more than redistributing its benefits.

Engagement strategies must adapt to this supply-side reality where engagement with decision-makers and their key influencers – such as parliamentary committees – focuses on removing barriers to supply rather than managing demand. The emphasis on building broader coalitions that “cross the aisle, in the parliament and outside” reflects the government’s understanding that sustainable supply side reforms require consensus-building beyond traditional political boundaries.

For the government, we will watch the messaging and actions to properly understand the priority and speed of particular productivity and supply-side reforms. For the opposition, it will likely be a difficult fortnight but important opposition engagement starts now, not in one or two years time. Here at the SAS Group, we are ready to help you engage in Canberra in what will likely be a very memorable 48th Parliament.