The Five Truisms of an Election

The SAS Group congratulates Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the Labor Party on their emphatic victory over the weekend.

We also thank the many candidates—from all walks of life and political persuasions—who contested the 150 electorates across this vast country and helped uphold our uniquely Australian way of life and democracy. 

For weeks—indeed, months—leading up to the election, much of the commentary pointed to a dull campaign, reflecting a divided electorate likely to deliver a hung parliament or minority government. As it turns out, the pollsters and punters underestimated the decisiveness and clarity of voters.

This election is one for the history books.

Holding out on the election date until the last possible moment; four leaders’ debates; a stumble; a backflip; a sidewalk; a policy denial; and an apology—this battle was an event.

There will be plenty of head-scratching as analysts attempt to understand how it could all have gone so wrong—not just for the Liberal Party, but also for the Australian Greens, who should be asking the same question of themselves. For Labor, the lessons should also be carefully recorded for future reference.

Amid the commotion and blur that is an election campaign, certain fundamental principles remain steadfast. 

The first is to refrain from excessive reliance on polling before the declaration of the election and the commencement of the formal campaign. This is when theoretical concepts are put into practice, and the effectiveness of any strategy is truly tested. While Labor appeared to trail in the polls and seemed hampered by the fallout from the lost Voice referendum, this was no longer front of mind come election day.

The second principle is to define yourself before your opponent does it for you. Peter Dutton, despite two decades of parliamentary experience, remained largely unknown to the public beyond his “hard man” persona on immigration and border issues.

The third truism is that expecting to win purely because your opponent will lose is a perilous strategy.The Coalition endeavoured to maintain a policy-light approach—light in both content and conviction. This left little room for meaningful engagement with the electorate and created space for others to step in.

The fourth truism is that if you intend to be bold on policy, it is imperative that your proposals have been thoroughly tested and carefully considered—both internally and externally. Policy ideas, like confetti, can scatter everywhere and are nearly impossible to clean up.

The fifth, and in my view most critical truism, is never to underestimate your opponent’s fight to survive and win—no matter how small or weakened they may appear. History is filled with great David and Goliath battles in this regard. The odds may be against you and the chances of victory slim, but nothing beats the fighting spirit of those determined to give everything for their cause.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has secured a place for himself—and for Labor—in the history books with this most extraordinary election victory.