The final pitch

The 2025-26 Federal Budget handed down last night all but fires the starting gun of this year’s federal election. The Treasurer has a good instinct for fusing policy and politics and he’s set the Opposition Leader a formidable challenge for this budget reply speech tonight.

If you consume either traditional or alternative media, you likely have a good handle of the political debating points emerging from this budget, whether it’s personal income tax cuts, non-compete clauses or health care. Rather than repeating these points, here are a few insights about emerging themes for a re-elected Albanese Government, if it’s returned in a few weeks:

Productivity: The Treasurer mentioned productivity six times in Tuesday night’s speech compared with four times in 2022 and zero in 2023 and 2024. The focus of the Albanese Government in 2022 was getting wages moving regardless of productivity, but this year the government is starting to prioritise productivity-enhancing policy. In approaching this government, any of your proposals will need to factor this in.

Private-sector-led growth: Table 2.2 shows public demand growth slowing over the forward estimates while private sector demand growth overtakes public sector growth in 2026-27. Increasingly, the government will be looking to assist the private sector in order to deliver a growth agenda.

Migration: Net overseas migration is forecast to return to pre-COVID levels over the forwards, from 435,000 last financial year to 225,000. Given ongoing discussions about workforce shortages, expect the government’s focus to be on supporting skills and training rather than migration settings.

While the next few weeks will be about converting policies into votes, if the Albanese Government is re-elected, keep these points in mind as you frame your own proposals and requests post-election.

Here at the SAS Group, we’ll be carefully listening to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s budget in reply speech tonight to see how each side is framing the contest ahead. We will also monitor the daily political movements as we fast approach the campaign proper. Reach out to our team if you’d like to grab a coffee and discuss current and future states of play.