The Federal Election is closer than you think

This week we see more evidence of the Prime Minister preparing for an election early in 2025. We have already seen the volume of legislation passed in the last sitting week, and this week we’ve seen a key centrepiece of Labor’s re-election plan, childcare reforms.

I was expecting this announcement to be saved for January when the campaign proper begins, but its release so close to Christmas holidays, ahead of MYEFO next week (which now looks like the budget you have before an election) speaks of the campaign-before-the-campaign starting before our eyes, leaving January for announcements on housing and cost of living.

The headlines include the much-touted figure of $530,000, which is where the childcare subsidy finally tapers off. As I have been saying to many clients, the Prime Minister’s language of “tax cuts for all” and delivering for “all generations” is a far cry from the language of inequality, the ‘top end of town’ and the ‘haves vs. have nots’ that has been prominent in the Labor vernacular. Yes, it is a progressive agenda, but an ‘inclusive’ agenda that is pitching people across the wealth distribution, including for childcare.

This sets up the contrast the Government wants to make, which is that Labor is the party seeking to unite the country while the Coalition and its leader Peter Dutton are seeking to divide it. The Coalition by contrast is seeking to paint Labor as ‘ideologically driven’ compared with their own ‘pragmatism’ and prioritising the interests of average Australians.

In evaluating how each side is going in the next few weeks, note whether the social media commentary and traditional media are adopting Labor’s inclusive vs. divisive language or the Coalition’s pragmatism vs. ideology. That will give you an insight into the trend of voter support when ballots are cast early next year.