2024 State Politics update – July

We find ourselves at the precipice of a heated and scrappy campaign, but for now, there is an eerie calm before the campaign proper starts. This gives you plenty of time to read our election brief, setting the scene for October’s poll.

July saw the annual budget estimates take place, with the Opposition taking up lines of attack around the 2032 Olympics infrastructure pipeline, the CFMEU, the Callide C power station explosion, cost escalations in the Queensland Energy and Jobs plan, and performance in the health and justice portfolios. No hard blows landed, but the Opposition weren’t under pressure to deliver cut-through either, given the latest polling which has the LNP ahead 57:43.

Looking ahead, August has the second-last sitting week before the election, which will no doubt be heated and intense. But if July is anything to go by, don’t expect too many significant new announcements. The budget delivered by the Government in June and the budget-in-reply given by the Opposition remain the key policy documents until the campaign proper. The Government will be reminding voters of the electricity bill relief now hitting accounts and the 50 cent public transport fares starting Monday, while the Opposition will be reminding voters of how old the Government is.

Beyond the headline events are a few trends that you should pay attention to. Announced Opposition policy is still relatively scarce, and with the substantial polling lead, it is no surprise that the Opposition can afford to disclose as little as possible, as late as possible in the lead-up to the election. The Government is running out of time, but the parliamentary weeks remain a key opportunity to apply pressure, close the gap, and force the Opposition to release its plans. Whether the Opposition does this in August or not will give you a good feel for which side is on top.

The second is that the Government is jettisoning old hang-ups in the pursuit of votes. The Rural Press Club was delighted to host the Premier last week, the first time a Labor Premier has delivered a speech for many long years. The new Premier can’t afford to waste any opportunity and is building constituency support in new ways that don’t fit old political norms.

The final trend is the age-old framing of the contest. Typically speaking, each side campaigns positively on either the leader or the party and frames the other side as the weaker of its leader or party. The Government looks to be centring its appeal on Premier Miles himself, using the adage “Miles: Doing what matters”, while framing the Opposition as the LNP, allowing it to drag Federal issues into the debate. The Opposition, by contrast, sees its party brand as an asset while positioning the Government as an old Labor Government. Framing is half the battle in politics, so watch how the media and voters describe the contest and think about which side’s messaging is cutting through.

The next time you read this update, only one sitting week will remain, and we will be six weeks out from early voting. Expect to see each campaign in full flight.